Lately I've been reading Lessons in Disaster by Gordon M. Goldstein. It's about Vietnam and the role of McGeorge Bundy, Kennedy's and Johnson's National Security Adviser. It's infuriating. Basically it's a story of elites gunning for war with no real thought being given to outcomes. The Bay of Pigs section is enough to make your blood boil for days.
I started reading Lessons in Disater when The New Yorker reported that President Obama was reading it. Two stories today, one in the New York Times and the other from the Associated Press highlight how the lessons of Lessons have influenced his thoughts.
First, from AP:
Military officials said Obama has asked for a rewrite before and resisted what one official called a one-way highway toward commander McChrystal's recommendations for more troops. The sense that he was being rushed and railroaded has stiffened Obama's resolve to seek information and options beyond military planning, officials said, though a substantial troop increase is still likely.
and the Times:
This low-end option was one of four alternatives under consideration by Mr. Obama and his war council at a meeting in the White House Situation Room on Wednesday afternoon. The other three options call for troop levels of around 20,000, 30,000 and 40,000, the three officials said.
The parallels are staggering. In Lessons, Vietnam was sold by the generals with three versions of essentially the same plan. The goal of many advisers seemed to be manipulating the Presidents Kennedy and Johnson rather than informing them.
When National Security Adviser Bundy was questioned about the goals and possible outcomes of military intervention, he never returned a thoughtful analysis.
Incidentally, I don't blame the Generals. Their job is war and that is what they are supposed to do. They gave their thoughtful recommendations, as today's generals surely have. The problem was the intellectuals who didn't do their part to bring in analysis of other mitigating non-military factors. In other words, a bunch of Ivy League jackasses tasked with the bigger picture never gave one thought to the boys who would die because of their little intellectual exercise.
The Times continues:
A central focus of Mr. Obama’s questions, officials said, was how long it would take to see results and be able to withdraw.“He wants to know where the off-ramps are,” one official said.
The president pushed for revisions in the options to clarify how — and when — American troops would turn over responsibility to the Afghan government. He raised questions, officials said, about the exit strategy for American troops and sought to make clear that the commitment by the Untied States would not be open-ended.
Call it dithering or whatever, but I'm glad we have a thoughtful president intent on not repeating the mistakes of the past.
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